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Can amphibians take the heat? Vulnerability to climate warming in subtropical and temperate larval amphibian communities

機(jī)譯：兩棲動(dòng)物可以加熱嗎？亞熱帶和溫帶幼蟲兩棲動(dòng)物群落對(duì)氣候變暖的脆弱性

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Predicting the biodiversity impacts of global warming implies that we know where and with what magnitude these impacts will be encountered. Amphibians are currently the most threatened vertebrates, mainly due to habitat loss and to emerging infectious diseases. Global warming may further exacerbate their decline in the near future, although the impact might vary geographically. We predicted that subtropical amphibians should be relatively susceptible to warming-induced extinctions because their upper critical thermal limits (CT max) might be only slightly higher than maximum pond temperatures (T max). We tested this prediction by measuring CT max and T max for 47 larval amphibian species from two thermally distinct subtropical communities (the warm community of the Gran Chaco and the cool community of Atlantic Forest, northern Argentina), as well as from one European temperate community. Upper thermal tolerances of tadpoles were positively correlated (controlling for phylogeny) with maximum pond temperatures, although the slope was steeper in subtropical than in temperate species. CT max values were lowest in temperate species and highest in the subtropical warm community, which paradoxically, had very low warming tolerance (CT max-T max) and therefore may be prone to future local extinction from acute thermal stress if rising pond T max soon exceeds their CT max. Canopy-protected subtropical cool species have larger warming tolerance and thus should be less impacted by peak temperatures. Temperate species are relatively secure to warming impacts, except for late breeders with low thermal tolerance, which may be exposed to physiological thermal stress in the coming years. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
機(jī)譯：預(yù)測(cè)全球變暖對(duì)生物多樣性的影響意味著我們知道這些影響將在何處以及在多大程度上受到影響。目前，兩棲動(dòng)物是受威脅最大的脊椎動(dòng)物，主要是由于棲息地的喪失和新出現(xiàn)的傳染病。盡管影響可能會(huì)因地域而異，但全球變暖在不久的將來(lái)可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步加劇其下降。我們預(yù)測(cè)，亞熱帶兩棲動(dòng)物應(yīng)該相對(duì)容易受到變暖導(dǎo)致的滅絕的影響，因?yàn)樗鼈兊呐R界熱上限（CT max）可能僅略高于池塘最高溫度（T max）。我們通過(guò)測(cè)量來(lái)自兩個(gè)熱特有的亞熱帶社區(qū)（格蘭查科的溫暖社區(qū)和阿根廷北部大西洋森林的涼爽社區(qū)）的47個(gè)幼蟲兩棲動(dòng)物的CT max和T max來(lái)測(cè)試此預(yù)測(cè)。 。 sub的最高耐熱性與最高池塘溫度成正相關(guān)（控制系統(tǒng)發(fā)育），盡管亞熱帶的坡度比溫帶物種的坡度更陡。相反，CT max值在溫帶物種中最低，而在亞熱帶溫暖群落中最高，這具有很低的耐溫性（CT max-T max），因此，如果池塘T T max很快升高，將來(lái)可能會(huì)因急性熱脅迫而局部滅絕。超過(guò)其CT最大值。冠層保護(hù)的亞熱帶涼爽物種具有較大的升溫耐受性，因此應(yīng)不受峰值溫度的影響。溫帶物種對(duì)變暖的影響相對(duì)安全，除了耐熱性低的后期種鴿，它們?cè)谖磥?lái)幾年可能會(huì)遭受生理性熱脅迫。 ?2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.。

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